New England Patriots (10-1) vs Houston Texans (7-4)
O/U 46. 5
NE- Sanu is expected to be back today, Dorsett should be back as well
HOU- Bradley Roby expected to return
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and ate a ton of food! Sadly, this nice break is coming to an end and it is back to the classroom for me tomorrow. Anyways, we have a great game tonight between the Patriots and Texans, in which I expect a ton of scoring to take place.
Houston is coming off a clutch win against the Colts and will have to continue to win to stay at top of the AFC South. As for the Patriots they are pretty much cruising into the playoffs, but they are pretty much playing for a first round bye. Now, let’s dive in and make some money!
When you are attacking a game you really have to look at the tempo, just as you would pace for NBA. Let’s look at two different scenarios in this game.
Patriots average tempo is 10th overall and Houston’s tempo is around 15th overall. One thing to note about the tempo is that Patriots will push the tempo if they are playing from behind, they are actually the fastest in the league. With this being said, I expect this game to have a ton of plays.
When breaking down the Houston Texans versus the Patriots, you sort of have to take a stand on how you think the game script will look like during the game. Let’s break down the plays and figure it out from there.
Carlos Hyde (4.8 YPC) and Duke Johnson (5.4 YPC), both are pretty much splitting snaps and shockingly they have been pretty damn good. The Texans are ranked 7th in rush offense EPA, 5th in success rate, and 4th in rush percentage. We can expect that obviously Hyde will get more carries because of early down work and Duke will come in passing down situations. As of right now Duke shockingly is not being utilized as much as we expected in the passing game, only has 25 catches in 11 games.
I expect that to change tonight in the scenario that the Texans are playing from behind. The reason why figuring out the running game situation tonight is ideal is because the Patriots have allowed 56% of touchdowns via the ground and opponents are rushing the ball 63% of the time at the 10 yard line.
As for the Houston Texans passing game we know that Watson is pretty damn good and the Texans offense is as well. The problem is that the Patriots are stout against the pass with Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty playing at elite levels. Does that mean the Texans WR’s are a fade? HELL NO! In single game slates, you need to create lineups with players who score right? Hopkins is elite and will still get value, Fuller back always the Texans to stretch the field, and Stills who should also receive work. By no means, do any of these Texans WR’s have great matchups, so I don’t think running Watson naked is a dumb idea at all.
As we all know the New England Patriots run game is a real shit show. We have Sony Michel who gets early work and goal line work, but no work in the passing game. James White is used in passing situations, but very little carries. Rex Burkhead is just getting random snaps and sometimes gets lucky. So to figure out what RB to use, play the game in your head. If the Patriots are in the lead we will see Michel and if the Patriots are losing we will see White.
Patriots passing game is another tricky situation. As we know Edeleman will continue to get fed, especially on short passes. The one thing to note with Edeleman is that Bradley Roby is expected back and could give Edelman a little bit of trouble. Regardless I don’t expect Roby to shadow, so Edeleman should see plenty of Vernon Hargreaves. As for Mohamed Sanu, he will be lined up against ex- Raider Gareon Conley, who is not good. Phillip Dorsett will line up against Jonathan Joseph who I don’t mind in GPPS.
Tier 1- Edelman/ D. Watson
Leverage- Carlos Hyde, Kenny Stills, James White, Tom Brady, Sanu
Tier 2- Duke Johnson, Hopkins, Will Fuller, Patriots D, Dorsett
Bovada-Any Time Scorer
Duke Johnson +275
Will Fuller +200
James White +160
Sony Michel -130
Darren Fells +200
- Watson +200
Kenny Stills +350
Ben Watson +275
Julian Edelman EVEN
Philip Dorsett +250
Tom Brady +900
Remember when building your lineups to play the scenario in your head what you think will happen. Take look at perfect lineups and build your lineups based off on how you think this game will go. Good luck and make sure you to follow @DFSheadquarters and join for only $15 a month
As always, I try and look at the previous showdown lineups when constructing mine. Here is what the past perfect lineups looked like.
GB/CHI – CPTN ARob / ARod / Cohen / MVS / Graham / Packers D
PIT/NE – CPTN TB12 / Juju / Edelman / Dorsett / Gostkowski / Burkhead
HOU/NO – CPTN Nuke / Watson / Thomas / Ginn / Stills / Lutz
DEN/OAK – CPTN Jacobs / Sanders / Sutton / Williams / Waller / McManus
CAR/TB – CPTN Godwin / Winston / Moore / Samuel / Olsen / Barber
PHI/ATL – CPTN Julio / Wentz / Ryan / Ridley / Agholor / Hollins
CLE/NYJ – CPTN Beckham Jr / Bell / Chubb / Browns D / Seibert / Johnson
TEN/JAX – CPTN Mariota / Fournette / Minshew / Chark / Jags D / Humphries
CLE/LAR – CPTN Kupp / Goff / Cooks / Chubb / Zuerlein / Browns D
CHI/WSH – CPTN Trubisky / Keenum / Richardson / Bears / McLaurin / Gabriel
PHI/GB – CPTN Howard / Adams / Rodgers / Wentz / Graham / Allison
DAL/NO – CPTN Thomas / Kamara / Elliott / Cowboys D / Lutz / Saints D
CIN/PIT – CPTN Conner / Rudolph / Mixon / Johnson / Steelers / Samuels
LAR/SEA – CPTN Kupp / Wilson / Goff / Carson / Everett
IND/KC – CPTN Mahomes / Kelce / Brissett / Mack / Colts D / Pringle
CLE/SF – CPTN Breida / Garoppolo / Kittle / Landry / Coleman / 49ers D
NYG/NE – CPTN NE D / Brady / Edelman / Tate / White / Bolden
PIT/SD – CPTN Conner / Rivers / Williams / Henry / Snell / Steelers D
DET/GB – CPTN Prater / Rodgers / Stafford / Golladay / Kerryon / J Williams
KC/DEN – CPTN Chiefs D / Hill / Kelce / Sutton / Sanders / Freeman
PHI/DAL – CPTN Zeke / Prescott / Cooper / Cowboys D / Maher / Goedert
NYJ/NE – CPTN Pats D / Edelman / Michel / White / Dorsett / Demaryius Thomas
WSH/MIN – CPTN Cook / Diggs / Vikings D / Peterson / Bailey / Hopkins
GB/KC – CPTN Jones / Rodgers / Moore / J Williams / Hardman / D Williams
MIA/PIT – CPTN Juju / Conner / Fitz / Johnson / Boswell / Hurns
ARI/SF – CPTN Drake / Jimmy G / Kyler / Kittle / Sanders / Isabella
NE/BAL – CPTN Edelman / Lamar / Ingram / White / Sanu / Boyle
DAL/NYG – CPTN Dak / Cooper / Jones / Cowboys D / Witten / Maher
LAC/OAK – CPTN MG3 / Rivers / Jacobs / Allen / Ekeler / Raiders
MIN/DAL – CPTN Cobb / Cook / Dak / Cooper / Rudolph / Irv Smith
SEA/SF – CPTN Carson / Wilson / Jimmy G / 49ers / Deebo / Hollister
Cle/ PITT- CPTN Baker/ Rudolph/ Browns D/ Hunt/ Landry/ Samuel
CHI/LAR- CPTN Gurley/ Gabriel/ Anthony Miller/ Trubisky/ Cohen/ Rams D
KC/ LAR- CPTN Ekeler/ Rivers/ Keenan Allen/ Kelce/ Hunter Henry/ McCoy
IND/ HOU- CPTN Hopkins/ Ebron/ Fuller/ Fairbairn/ Watson/ Jonathan Williams
GB/SF- CPTN Kittle/ Jimmy G/ Jamaal Williams/ Raheem Mostert/ Davonte Adams/ Chase McLaughlin
BAL/ LAR- CPTN Lamar Jackson/ Mark Ingram/ Marquise Brown/ Robert Woods/ Willie Snead/ Tyler Higbee