Showcasing the Showdown – Cowboys vs. Bills (Thanksgiving TNF)

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Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys

O/U 47.0

Bills +7/ Cowboys -7

Well here we are another Thanksgiving Day full of food, beer, and football. The Cowboys are going against the pesky (pretty damn good) football team the Buffalo Bills. I am actually pretty excited to watch this game as the Bills get to play on Thanksgiving for the first time in over 20 years and they get to play against no other than the Dallas Cowboys.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are a pretty damn good team sitting at 8-3 and coming into Dallas on a 2 game winning streak. Cole Beasley will also make his return to his old home in Dallas and I am sure he wants to make a splash. Dallas on the other hand as we all know is going through some issues. It sounds like the coaching staff is in shambles and word was that coaching changes could be made sooner than later.

Cowboys are a 6-5 team who lost a heart breaker vs the New England Patriots, in which a ton of blame was pointed to the coaching staff. In their defense, the weather was absolute garbage and even the goat himself Tom Brady struggled.

Tempo

I expect this game to stay at a pretty moderate pace. Should stay close and honestly, wouldn’t be shocked if the game is decided by a field goal.

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Cowboys cannot stop the run and we can all just assume that the Bills plan will be to pound the rock all…game…long. Unfortunately, we have a split between Devin Singletary (47%) and Frank Gore (27%). In showdowns this is such a pain in the ass because you literally need to find a way to have exposure to both.

In this situation, the Bills are underdogs and so Singletary should get heavy carries if that is indeed the case.

As for the WR situation for the Bills John Brown has the best matchup on paper versus Chidope Awuzie, who by no means is an easy matchup. Based off pure volume, I still have interest in Brown (10 plus targets, 2 out of the last 3 games). Another positive for Brown that Allen is going to have to play catch up and Allen should lean heavily on Brown in catch up mode.

Beasley is returning back to Dallas and that could give him some ownership. Cole by no means has a great matchup against Jourdin Lewis, but last two weeks the Cowboys have been burned by slot WR. I will have quite a bit of exposure to Beasley in my catch up builds. Isaiah Mckenzie is another WR that we need to talk about even with how bad that sounds. He is a min price player and should play 70% of snaps. With Robert Foster getting hurt last week and the possibility that the Bills are playing from behind, he is an excellent value play.

Dawson Knox has a decent matchup, but the one negative thing is the amount of targets that he sees. Last four weeks he has 2 targets, 6 targets, 3 targets, and 2 targets. Is this sexy? Not at all, but we need value and would play him in my stacks that has the Bills from playing from behind.

When we talk about the Cowboys, it is almost a no brainer that Zeke is in play. The Bills have had an easy time containing WRs, but they struggle tremendously stopping the run. Ezekiel Elliot, is absolutely in play and I would not be shocked if he scores multiple touchdowns tomorrow.

Dak Prescott is another player that should carry ownership, but let’s really break down what SHOULD happen tomorrow. Cowboys are +7 point favorites, Bills defense can contain WRs, and the Bills struggle tremendously vs the run. As we all know what should happen doesn’t always happen. So if you’re MME, I would make my builds based on the scenario that the Cowboys are actually playing from behind. Either way, I will have quite a bit of Dak, but I think the edge is playing him in the right lineup scenario.

Amari Cooper is coming off a zero catch week and guess what, his matchup does not get any easier, as he will matchup with Tre’Davious White. Can Cooper find a way to still have a blow up game? Oh yeah, he has had huge games in tough matchups before. Based off the scenario we think will happen, Cooper won’t be needed much. Regardless don’t cross him off your list based on the upside that offers, just know that playing him does come with risk.

Michael Gallup on paper has the best matchup out of the Cowboy’s WRS. Gallup is going to line up with Levi Wallace and if Cooper struggles, we could see heavy volume for Gallup. Randall Cobb I get it has been pretty good as of late, but I think that ends tomorrow. Cobb will line up with Taron Johnson who has been pretty good this year. I get the play in MME, but I will be way under the field.

Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin both have pretty rough matchups and I am just not interested in either. If had to choose one I would pick Witten, in which Vegas has him at +240 to score a touchdown.

 

Bovada Player Props (Anytime TD score)

Ezekiel Elliot -235

Amari Cooper -130

John Brown +125

Michael Gallup +140

Devin Singletary +150

Prescott/ Frank Gore/ Jason Witten +240

Cole Beasley +275

 

Tier 1

Ezekiel Elliot, Dak prescott, Josh brown

Leverage plays

Gallup, Devin Singletary, Josh Allen

Tier 2

Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, Cole Beasley, Knox, Mckenzie, Witten

 

Perfect Lineups

This is where I really start to look at game scenarios when I am building my lineups. Look at the perfect lineups and create game scenarios in your mind while building.

            GB/CHI – CPTN ARob / ARod / Cohen / MVS / Graham / Packers D

            PIT/NE – CPTN TB12 / Juju / Edelman / Dorsett / Gostkowski / Burkhead

            HOU/NO – CPTN Nuke / Watson / Thomas / Ginn / Stills / Lutz

            DEN/OAK – CPTN Jacobs / Sanders / Sutton / Williams / Waller / McManus

            CAR/TB – CPTN Godwin / Winston / Moore / Samuel / Olsen / Barber

            PHI/ATL – CPTN Julio / Wentz / Ryan / Ridley / Agholor / Hollins

            CLE/NYJ – CPTN Beckham Jr / Bell / Chubb / Browns D / Seibert / Johnson

            TEN/JAX – CPTN Mariota / Fournette / Minshew / Chark / Jags D / Humphries

            CLE/LAR – CPTN Kupp / Goff / Cooks / Chubb / Zuerlein / Browns D

            CHI/WSH – CPTN Trubisky / Keenum / Richardson / Bears / McLaurin / Gabriel

            PHI/GB – CPTN Howard / Adams / Rodgers / Wentz / Graham / Allison

            DAL/NO – CPTN Thomas / Kamara / Elliott / Cowboys D / Lutz / Saints D

            CIN/PIT – CPTN Conner / Rudolph / Mixon / Johnson / Steelers / Samuels

            LAR/SEA – CPTN Kupp / Wilson / Goff / Carson / Everett

            IND/KC – CPTN Mahomes / Kelce / Brissett / Mack / Colts D / Pringle

            CLE/SF – CPTN Breida / Garoppolo / Kittle / Landry / Coleman / 49ers D

            NYG/NE – CPTN NE D / Brady / Edelman / Tate / White / Bolden

            PIT/SD – CPTN Conner / Rivers / Williams / Henry / Snell / Steelers D

            DET/GB – CPTN Prater / Rodgers / Stafford / Golladay / Kerryon / J Williams

            KC/DEN – CPTN Chiefs D / Hill / Kelce / Sutton / Sanders / Freeman

            PHI/DAL – CPTN Zeke / Prescott / Cooper / Cowboys D / Maher / Goedert

            NYJ/NE – CPTN Pats D / Edelman / Michel / White / Dorsett / Demaryius Thomas

            WSH/MIN – CPTN Cook / Diggs / Vikings D / Peterson / Bailey / Hopkins

            GB/KC – CPTN Jones / Rodgers / Moore / J Williams / Hardman / D Williams

            MIA/PIT – CPTN Juju / Conner / Fitz / Johnson / Boswell / Hurns

            ARI/SF – CPTN Drake / Jimmy G / Kyler / Kittle / Sanders / Isabella

            NE/BAL – CPTN Edelman / Lamar / Ingram / White / Sanu / Boyle

            DAL/NYG – CPTN Dak / Cooper / Jones / Cowboys D / Witten / Maher

            LAC/OAK – CPTN MG3 / Rivers / Jacobs / Allen / Ekeler / Raiders

            MIN/DAL – CPTN Cobb / Cook / Dak / Cooper / Rudolph / Irv Smith

            SEA/SF – CPTN Carson / Wilson / Jimmy G / 49ers / Deebo / Hollister

            Cle/ PITT- CPTN Baker/ Rudolph/ Browns D/ Hunt/ Landry/ Samuel

            CHI/LAR- CPTN Gurley/ Gabriel/ Anthony Miller/ Trubisky/ Cohen/ Rams D

            KC/ LAR- CPTN Ekeler/ Rivers/ Keenan Allen/ Kelce/ Hunter Henry/ McCoy

            IND/ HOU- CPTN Hopkins/ Ebron/ Fuller/ Fairbairn/ Watson/ Jonathan Williams

            GB/SF- CPTN Kittle/ Jimmy G/ Jamaal Williams/ Raheem Mostert/ Davonte Adams/ Chase McLaughlin

            BAL/ LAR- CPTN Lamar Jackson/ Mark Ingram/ Marquise Brown/ Robert Woods/ Willie Snead/ Tyler Higbee

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