Indianapolis Colts vs the Houston Texans
Colts +3.5/ Texans 3.5
This game has some injury news that we really need to keep our eyes on. We already know that Mack is out with a broken hand and we also have to find out if TY Hilton will be active today. As for the Texans we have also have a questionable Will Fuller. I am going to go out on a limb and say that Fuller isn’t pushed to go tonight, as the Texans play the Patriots next week. As for the RB situation for the Colts, it is a pretty little shit show that we are going to have to figure out how to attack. Wilkins/ Williams look like they will get a bulk of the carries and Hines will be the guy who will play the passing down. It is a pretty murky situation and not ideal to have to guess, but we this is where we have to think about game scenarios. We can discuss that a little bit later.
Houston Break Down
RB– Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are pretty much splitting carries, and it this is something we don’t want to attack when it comes to larger slates. Of course tonight is different and we need to have exposure to these backs. In this situation this is where we need to think of game scenarios. If the Texans are leading they will run with Carlos Hyde and if they are trailing we will see plenty of Duke Johnson.
QB– Watson is pretty much a must play in this game tonight. He has a ton of upside and was in MVP talks until Lamar ran all over the Texans last week. I think he is staple to all lineups tonight.
WR- I believe this is where the edge in this game will come. Obviously we know that Hopkins is always in play and he has a great matchup against Pierre Desir. As for Fuller, if he does play this would move Stills to the slot. This is where the Colts get burned OFTEN. Now if Fuller does sit, this would mean D. Carter would be in the slot and he would become interesting in MME lineups. The only reason why I wouldn’t consider him safe regardless of the matchup is because of his snap count.
TE-This isn’t the greatest spot when it comes to production, but they are some value that can be used. Darren Fells has the highest snap rate (0.77) and Atkins is sitting at (0.61). The safe route if you’re picking one is Fells, but Atkins is fine if you’re playing high risk contests.
RB- I firmly believe if you can get the RB situation right for the Colts, you have a huge shot in taking down a tournament. Johnathan Williams lead the back field when Mack went down with a 46% snap rate, but Jordan Wilkins was inactive who has been Mack’s backup. Wilkin’s will be active tonight and so I firmly believe both will split carries on early downs. As for Hines, he should get plenty of work with the Colts playing catch up. Hines is easily the safest play out of the RBs, but that does not mean Wilkins or Williams are not in play.
QB- Jacoby Brissett was a fresh off a knee injury last week and led the Colts to a victory over the Jags. In this game I see that game script will make him throw often and this makes him a great play. The fun stat to look at is that the Texans are ranked 25th in sacks and for this Brissett will have a ton of time to make a play.
WR-Hilton should be back tonight and he has an insanely good history versus the Texans. He also has a great matchup against Lonnie Johnson Jr and if he is indeed active, I wouldn’t think twice about playing him. Hilton active also means Chester Rogers and Marcus Johnson will be fighting for snaps. This is because the Colts like to run two TE sets and that would mean Pascal and Hilton will be the main WR’s in this game. As for Pascal he will be going against Gareon Conley and that man is just not very good. Overall Hilton and Pascal are both vital targets when creating your lineups
TE-Ebron/Doyle are both in play. I will say this, if Hilton is active I think that hurts Ebron’s upside the most. Still both are worthy of consideration when making your lineups.
As we can see based off the production, is that the Texans are actually pretty bad on defense. They have had issues versus QB’s a ton and RB’s have had great success against Houston since they lost Watt. As for the Colts, they are actually not shabby. Not normally a team I would want to attack on a larger slate, but tonight we will find the plays to attack the weaknesses that they do have.
Hines/Stills (If Fuller is out)/D. Johnson/Hyde/Brisett
Bovada Player props (Anytime touchdown scorer)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Buddy Howell (HOU) +2500
Carlos Hyde (HOU) +105
Darren Fells (HOU) +180
DeAndre Carter (HOU) +500
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) -120
Deshaun Watson (HOU) +180
Duke Johnson (HOU) +220
Jordan Akins (HOU) +500
Keke Coutee (HOU) +500
Kenny Stills (HOU) +220
Taiwan Jones (HOU) +1600
Will Fuller (HOU) +140
Chester Rogers (IND) +240
Eric Ebron (IND) +200
Jack Doyle (IND) +150
Jacoby Brissett (IND) +550
Jonathan Williams (IND) +110
Jordan Wilkins (IND) +235
Marcus Johnson (IND) +325
Nyheim Hines (IND) +240
T.Y. Hilton (IND) +115
Zach Pascal (IND) +150
I bolded a few plays I found to be interesting in this spot, but just because they are listed doesn’t mean they are must plays. This again, is where I normally go when I am creating my player pool. Of course If you are entering 150 lineups anyone is pretty much in play, but for me I play about 10-20 lineups. So I won’t be playing players like T. Jones or Buddy Howell.
Overall, this game is going to be a fun one to watch. Remember when building, go with the game scenario you think will take place.