Showcasing the Showdown – Buccaneers vs. Texans

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Houston Texans (9-5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)

o/u 50.5

Houston Texans -3.5

Injuries

TB – Mike Evans/ Scotty Miller out for the season. Godwin and Tanner Hudson are out for the game. James Winston is also batting a thumb injury

HOU – Will Fuller and Carlos Hyde are questionable. Both expected to play

Other news – TB signed Cyril Grayson (WR) off the Cowboys Practice squad and promoted WR Spencer Schnell to the active roster.

Tempo – Tampa is playing at 7th in pace and Houston is playing at a 13th overall. Based off what Vegas has for the O/U we can assume that this game is going to have a ton of action.

Tampa Bay

RB Ronald Jones leads the pack in snap percentage but still isn’t getting a ton of carries. Last week he had 11 carries compared to Peyton Barber’s 10. Houston is 15th in run DVOA, but this seems like a tricky situation. If I was playing a single lineup, I would fade this situation.

WR’s – No Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin, and no Scotty Miller. Who is Winston going to throw the ball to? The favorite targets in this WR core would be Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson. Other targets will be Cyril Grayson, and Ishmael Hyman.

Perriman will be the chalky play, as he has gone absolutely nuts. Last week he had 6 targets for 5-113-3. He is the safe option, but if you are running multiple lineups. I believe Winston stacks with Grayson and Justin Watson. This offense is more of a spread out offense, so they are worth the risk.  Houston is ranked 26th in pass DVOA. DO NOT BE AFRAID

QB Jameis Winston showed no ill signs last week with the thumb injury. Threw for over 400 yards and multiple touchdowns. In a game where TB is the home underdogs, I would not be afraid. Of course the leverage play, is assuming that the WR core will hurt the Bucs more than people think. Playing Houston’s defense would be the play to look at. Anyways, Winston is in a nice spot and is a MUST if you are playing one lineup.

TECameron Brate and OJ Howard should see plenty of work this week. With the WR core in shambles, both TE’s saw 7 targets last week. OJ Howard saw 88% of the snaps and Brate saw 41%, so obviously we prefer the more snaps. Brate would be the pivot in your non Howard lineups.

Houston

RB’sCarlos Hyde saw 26 carries last week and ran for 104 yards. Hyde also out snapped Duke Johnson, purely based on positive game script for Hyde. He does not get much work in the passing game which kills his upside. In a one game showdown I am ok with that, as long as we get the touchdown that he should get in this game that sets up for positive game script for him. The Buccaneers do rank first in run DVOA, so by no means is this matchup sexy. Still will have light exposure.

WR’s – We have the normal suspects in this game. DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills. Hopkins played 100% of snaps last week, Fuller played 94%, and Stills played 62%. This matchup sets up well for Hopkins as the Bucs allow the 3rd least amount of 20+ yard plays. Regardless, this defense is a funnel defense. Don’t be afraid to use any of these WR’s.

TE’s – Darren Fells and Jordan Atkins are seeing about three targets a game. Both are extremely hard to trust, but if I had to choose one it would be Fells who has seven touchdowns.

QB Watson, what can I say. This spot is perfect for him and he will have to throw a TON. Play this man and don’t think twice.

Tier 1 – Jameis Winston, Breshad Perriman, O.J Howard, DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins

Leverage – Houston Defense, Cameron Brate, Ishamel Hyman, Justin Watson

Tier 2 – Carlos Hyde, Will Fuller, Ronald Jones

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Bovada Anytime Scorer

Hopkins -160

Perriman +105

Howard +18

R. Jones +115

Watson +130

J.Watson +200

Bovada who will score 2 or more Touchdowns

Hopkins +350

Perriman +700

R. Jones +800

Perfect lineups

GB/CHI – CPTN ARob / ARod / Cohen / MVS / Graham / Packers D

PIT/NE – CPTN TB12 / Juju / Edelman / Dorsett / Gostkowski / Burkhead

HOU/NO – CPTN Nuke / Watson / Thomas / Ginn / Stills / Lutz

DEN/OAK – CPTN Jacobs / Sanders / Sutton / Williams / Waller / McManus

CAR/TB – CPTN Godwin / Winston / Moore / Samuel / Olsen / Barber

PHI/ATL – CPTN Julio / Wentz / Ryan / Ridley / Agholor / Hollins

CLE/NYJ – CPTN Beckham Jr / Bell / Chubb / Browns D / Seibert / Johnson

TEN/JAX – CPTN Mariota / Fournette / Minshew / Chark / Jags D / Humphries

CLE/LAR – CPTN Kupp / Goff / Cooks / Chubb / Zuerlein / Browns D

CHI/WSH – CPTN Trubisky / Keenum / Richardson / Bears / McLaurin / Gabriel

PHI/GB – CPTN Howard / Adams / Rodgers / Wentz / Graham / Allison

DAL/NO – CPTN Thomas / Kamara / Elliott / Cowboys D / Lutz / Saints D

CIN/PIT – CPTN Conner / Rudolph / Mixon / Johnson / Steelers / Samuels

LAR/SEA – CPTN Kupp / Wilson / Goff / Carson / Everett

IND/KC – CPTN Mahomes / Kelce / Brissett / Mack / Colts D / Pringle

CLE/SF – CPTN Breida / Garoppolo / Kittle / Landry / Coleman / 49ers D

NYG/NE – CPTN NE D / Brady / Edelman / Tate / White / Bolden

PIT/SD – CPTN Conner / Rivers / Williams / Henry / Snell / Steelers D

DET/GB – CPTN Prater / Rodgers / Stafford / Golladay / Kerryon / J Williams

KC/DEN – CPTN Chiefs D / Hill / Kelce / Sutton / Sanders / Freeman

PHI/DAL – CPTN Zeke / Prescott / Cooper / Cowboys D / Maher / Goedert

NYJ/NE – CPTN Pats D / Edelman / Michel / White / Dorsett / Demaryius Thomas

WSH/MIN – CPTN Cook / Diggs / Vikings D / Peterson / Bailey / Hopkins

GB/KC – CPTN Jones / Rodgers / Moore / J Williams / Hardman / D Williams

MIA/PIT – CPTN Juju / Conner / Fitz / Johnson / Boswell / Hurns

ARI/SF – CPTN Drake / Jimmy G / Kyler / Kittle / Sanders / Isabella

NE/BAL – CPTN Edelman / Lamar / Ingram / White / Sanu / Boyle

DAL/NYG – CPTN Dak / Cooper / Jones / Cowboys D / Witten / Maher

LAC/OAK – CPTN MG3 / Rivers / Jacobs / Allen / Ekeler / Raiders

MIN/DAL – CPTN Cobb / Cook / Dak / Cooper / Rudolph / Irv Smith

SEA/SF – CPTN Carson / Wilson / Jimmy G / 49ers / Deebo / Hollister

Cle/ Pitt- CPTN Baker/ Rudolph/ Browns D/ Hunt/ Landry/ Samuel

CHI/ LAR- CPTN Gurley/ Gabriel/ Anthony Miller/ Trubisky/ Cohen/ Rams D

KC/ LAC- CPTN Ekleler/ Rivers/ Keenan Allen/ Kele/ Hunter Henry/ McCoy

Ind/ Hou- CPTN Hopkins/ Ebron/ Fuller/ Fairbairn/ Watson/ Jonathan Williams

Gb/ Sf- Kittle/ Jimmy G/ Jamaal Williams/ Raheem Mostert/ Davonte Adams/ Chase McLaughlin

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