Houston Texans (9-5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Houston Texans -3.5
TB – Mike Evans/ Scotty Miller out for the season. Godwin and Tanner Hudson are out for the game. James Winston is also batting a thumb injury
HOU – Will Fuller and Carlos Hyde are questionable. Both expected to play
Other news – TB signed Cyril Grayson (WR) off the Cowboys Practice squad and promoted WR Spencer Schnell to the active roster.
Tempo – Tampa is playing at 7th in pace and Houston is playing at a 13th overall. Based off what Vegas has for the O/U we can assume that this game is going to have a ton of action.
RB – Ronald Jones leads the pack in snap percentage but still isn’t getting a ton of carries. Last week he had 11 carries compared to Peyton Barber’s 10. Houston is 15th in run DVOA, but this seems like a tricky situation. If I was playing a single lineup, I would fade this situation.
WR’s – No Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin, and no Scotty Miller. Who is Winston going to throw the ball to? The favorite targets in this WR core would be Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson. Other targets will be Cyril Grayson, and Ishmael Hyman.
Perriman will be the chalky play, as he has gone absolutely nuts. Last week he had 6 targets for 5-113-3. He is the safe option, but if you are running multiple lineups. I believe Winston stacks with Grayson and Justin Watson. This offense is more of a spread out offense, so they are worth the risk. Houston is ranked 26th in pass DVOA. DO NOT BE AFRAID
QB – Jameis Winston showed no ill signs last week with the thumb injury. Threw for over 400 yards and multiple touchdowns. In a game where TB is the home underdogs, I would not be afraid. Of course the leverage play, is assuming that the WR core will hurt the Bucs more than people think. Playing Houston’s defense would be the play to look at. Anyways, Winston is in a nice spot and is a MUST if you are playing one lineup.
TE – Cameron Brate and OJ Howard should see plenty of work this week. With the WR core in shambles, both TE’s saw 7 targets last week. OJ Howard saw 88% of the snaps and Brate saw 41%, so obviously we prefer the more snaps. Brate would be the pivot in your non Howard lineups.
RB’s– Carlos Hyde saw 26 carries last week and ran for 104 yards. Hyde also out snapped Duke Johnson, purely based on positive game script for Hyde. He does not get much work in the passing game which kills his upside. In a one game showdown I am ok with that, as long as we get the touchdown that he should get in this game that sets up for positive game script for him. The Buccaneers do rank first in run DVOA, so by no means is this matchup sexy. Still will have light exposure.
WR’s – We have the normal suspects in this game. DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills. Hopkins played 100% of snaps last week, Fuller played 94%, and Stills played 62%. This matchup sets up well for Hopkins as the Bucs allow the 3rd least amount of 20+ yard plays. Regardless, this defense is a funnel defense. Don’t be afraid to use any of these WR’s.
TE’s – Darren Fells and Jordan Atkins are seeing about three targets a game. Both are extremely hard to trust, but if I had to choose one it would be Fells who has seven touchdowns.
QB – Watson, what can I say. This spot is perfect for him and he will have to throw a TON. Play this man and don’t think twice.
Tier 1 – Jameis Winston, Breshad Perriman, O.J Howard, DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins
Leverage – Houston Defense, Cameron Brate, Ishamel Hyman, Justin Watson
Tier 2 – Carlos Hyde, Will Fuller, Ronald Jones
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Bovada Anytime Scorer
R. Jones +115
Bovada who will score 2 or more Touchdowns
R. Jones +800
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