I hope everyone had an amazing 4th of July and didn’t wake up too hungover (sadly I did). I really didn’t play yesterday due to the fact that my family had to put down one of our fur babies because his disease finally decided to make life unbearable for him. Anyways no more mushy stuff, let’s think positive.
Did anyone see the home-run derby lineup? It’s FUCKING exciting. Vlad Jr vs Yelich, Pete Alonso vs Carlos Santana, Bell vs Acuna and Joc vs Bregman. I love it, I of course love me some Pete Alonso, so that is the guy I hope takes the whole thing down after he hits 500 foot moon shots. Ok, now let’s talk about today’s slate
Aaron Sanchez vs Baltimore ($4,900) -135 favorite
Before I get started, I just wanted to say Sanchez is risky every day until we see some type of sign that he remembers how to pitch. The once All-Star and Blue Jays ace, just hasn’t figured it out this season and it has to be worrisome. For us, we are not worried about the season for him, but more about how he is going to pitch for us TODAY. First let’s take a look at the stat-cast for Sanchez the last two weeks.
Ground Ball rate -53.0 (Green)
Fly Ball- 22.7 (Green)
Hard Contact- 31.8 (Red)
Soft Contact- 21.2 (Green)
Average Exit Velocity- 89.10 (Light green)
Average Distance-189 (Green)
Barreled- 4 (Green)
Obviously we know green means good and red means bad, looking at this it is kind of surprising that he has struggled so much. To me this is a sign that good things are to come and today could be the day that we see that. At $4,800 on DraftKings I think he is worth a shot. Let’s now take a look at Baltimore on the road vs right handed pitching.
K Rate – 26.6% (3rd)
AVG – .235 (25th)
OBP – .294 (27th)
WOBA – .285 (28th)
As you see, Baltimore still sucks and will continue to take chances against that offense.
Martin Perez vs Texas ($7,900) -172 favorite
I still can’t get over the fact that Martin Perez doesn’t suck. I remember the awful games he had when he played for Texas and the days we would all attack him when it came to DFS. Well, I guess he is a different guy now getting out of the AL west and that Texas heat. Today he is facing his former team and we all can agree the revenge narrative is key in this, at least for me. Here is some of his stat-cast data over the past two weeks.
Ground Ball rate- 54.2 (Green)
Fly Ball- 28.9 (Green)
Soft Contact- 34.9 (Green)
Average Exit Velocity- 84.20 (Green)
Average Distance- 187.2 (Green)
Barreled – 4 (Green)
With all that green I have him at the second best pitching match up today, right behind Eduardo Rodriguez. I think Perez continues to get the job done and against his old team!
Let’s now break down the Rangers splits versus left handed pitching on the road:
K Rate- 32.9% (Most in MLB)
AVG – .215 (29th)
OBP – .278 (27th)
WOBA – .289 (23rd)
Texas’s offense isn’t scary on the road and I believe that continues today.
I recommend to check the weather before lock today, looks like rain is in the forecast. If it indeed plays without a delay risk, I would lock this man in!
Follow me on twitter at @VGo07 if you have any questions and also give @DFSHeadquarters a follow as we are offering a free chatroom where we will drop free information throughout the week. If you would like to join the premium chat it is only $15 a month and believe me it’s worth it!